FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.65 – 147.81

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.2 ±12.8

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 66.36Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 28.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 1.74Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.3 ±11.7

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 43.15Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 65.03Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 39.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 8041, 11440

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 226, 8041, 11440

Auto

17.2 18%

Teleop

61.9 65%

Endgame

15.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7790, 2586, 11437

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7790, 2586, 11437

Auto

13.9 9%

Teleop

96.6 64%

Endgame

40.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score147.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.2
Score range: 79–166
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.2Season APEX392.3

17.2Auto13.9

61.9Teleop96.6

15.6Endgame40.2

71Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	15
teleop	50	48
endgame	14	38
foul	35	0
total	136	101

Result

Final score

136 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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