FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.48 – 145.68

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.4 ±11.6

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 26.46Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 29.78Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 47.24Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.8 ±11.7

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX -1.7Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 126.2Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 21.18Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9541, 10421, 4956

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9541, 10421, 4956

Auto

31.2 30%

Teleop

44.7 43%

Endgame

27.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4776, 3603, 9568

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 3603, 9568

Auto

18.9 14%

Teleop

88.3 65%

Endgame

29.0 21%

Strengths

· 3603 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score145.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 85–164
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 100.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.4Season APEX280.8

31.2Auto18.9

44.7Teleop88.3

27.3Endgame29

0Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	45
teleop	38	106
endgame	37	6
foul	0	0
total	106	157

Result

Final score

106 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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