FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.6 – 108.26

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±11.1

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 21.73Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 57.65Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 7.22Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.7 ±13.3

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 31.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 51.5Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 24.77Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9650, 5534, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9650, 5534, 7855

Auto

8.8 10%

Teleop

50.0 58%

Endgame

26.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8041, 141, 5547

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8041, 141, 5547

Auto

6.8 6%

Teleop

67.2 62%

Endgame

33.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.6pts

Blue projected score108.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.7
Score range: 69–126
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 101.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.7Season APEX180.7

8.8Auto6.8

50Teleop67.2

26.9Endgame33.9

57Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	9
teleop	29	33
endgame	7	14
foul	0	15
total	46	71

Result

Final score

46 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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