FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.51 – 162.93

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313 ±11.6

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 63.62Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 22.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 40.19Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±11.7

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 116.65Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -7.95Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 54.23Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 6963, 7790

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 226, 6963, 7790

Auto

15.4 12%

Teleop

83.7 65%

Endgame

29.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 5560, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 5560, 7202

Auto

16.1 10%

Teleop

107.0 68%

Endgame

33.4 21%

Strengths

· 3603 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.5pts

Blue projected score162.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.4
Score range: 109–181
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313Season APEX318.2

15.4Auto16.1

83.7Teleop107

29.1Endgame33.4

0Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	51
teleop	89	148
endgame	30	24
foul	0	0
total	144	223

Result

Final score

144 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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