FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.51 – 96.46

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.4 ±9.9

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 67.84Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 31.24Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 30.43Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.7 ±12.4

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 15.21Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 45.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 35.98Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 10421, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2586, 10421, 7250

Auto

18.5 16%

Teleop

70.1 61%

Endgame

26.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9568, 3536, 11437

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9568, 3536, 11437

Auto

14.8 15%

Teleop

66.1 65%

Endgame

20.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.5pts

Blue projected score96.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.1
Score range: 78–148
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 98.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.4Season APEX350.7

18.5Auto14.8

70.1Teleop66.1

26.5Endgame20.1

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	45
teleop	52	84
endgame	39	27
foul	0	0
total	123	156

Result

Final score

123 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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