FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.58 – 24.79

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221 ±12.7

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 25.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 47.45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 14.72Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.2 ±13.3

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 25.76Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 4.31Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX -5.28Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8041, 7202, 9106

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8041, 7202, 9106

Auto

13.4 15%

Teleop

59.2 68%

Endgame

14.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5547, 11435, 4776

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5547, 11435, 4776

Auto

-1.6 0%

Teleop

2.0 11%

Endgame

17.1 98%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.6pts

Blue projected score24.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.8
Score range: 7–106
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221Season APEX113.2

13.4Auto-1.6

59.2Teleop2

14.3Endgame17.1

71Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	5
teleop	105	21
endgame	35	17
foul	0	0
total	155	43

Result

Final score

155 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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