FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.53 – 204.73

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.1 ±9.9

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 20.51Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 43.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 28.59Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.8 ±9.9

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 65.14Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 101.49Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 38.1Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7250, 1684, 7790

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7250, 1684, 7790

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

59.2 65%

Endgame

13.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5534, 2054, 10421

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 2054, 10421

Auto

40.4 21%

Teleop

108.4 56%

Endgame

46.3 24%

Strengths

· 2054 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.5pts

Blue projected score204.7pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.2
Score range: 76–222
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 97.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.1Season APEX491.8

18.2Auto40.4

59.2Teleop108.4

13Endgame46.3

72Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	42
teleop	102	90
endgame	56	44
foul	15	0
total	186	176

Result

Final score

186 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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