FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.06 – 79.65

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.1 ±11.1

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 23.32Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 109.36Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 19.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±13.9

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 42.29Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 8.14Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 29.22Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9541, 3603, 6963

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9541, 3603, 6963

Auto

20.9 14%

Teleop

98.6 66%

Endgame

31.0 21%

Strengths

· 3603 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11437, 6087, 3537

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11437, 6087, 3537

Auto

7.6 9%

Teleop

48.9 61%

Endgame

23.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.1pts

Blue projected score79.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.4
Score range: 63–169
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 96.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.1Season APEX162.4

20.9Auto7.6

98.6Teleop48.9

31Endgame23.7

19Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	17
teleop	117	24
endgame	54	16
foul	0	0
total	199	57

Result

Final score

199 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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