FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.72 – 76.79

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.3 ±11.7

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 28.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 7.75Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 65.24Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.8 ±13.3

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -2.09Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 37.5Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 41.38Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8041, 7155, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8041, 7155, 5534

Auto

9.4 10%

Teleop

42.9 47%

Endgame

39.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11435, 7202, 11437

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11435, 7202, 11437

Auto

8.2 10%

Teleop

54.5 64%

Endgame

23.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.7pts

Blue projected score76.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.9
Score range: 60–119
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 96.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.3Season APEX208.8

9.4Auto8.2

42.9Teleop54.5

39.7Endgame23.1

97Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	10
teleop	47	66
endgame	23	27
foul	0	0
total	90	103

Result

Final score

90 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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