FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.14 – 147.01

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±11.6

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 16.23Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 7.95Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 12.96Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.8 ±12.4

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -0.49Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 22.66Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 124.84Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6963, 9106, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 9106, 7768

Auto

18.5 52%

Teleop

9.1 26%

Endgame

7.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7794, 6087, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7794, 6087, 3603

Auto

7.5 5%

Teleop

86.3 63%

Endgame

43.8 32%

Strengths

· 3603 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.1pts

Blue projected score147pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.9
Score range: 20–164
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 97.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.9Season APEX293.8

18.5Auto7.5

9.1Teleop86.3

7.7Endgame43.8

24Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	39	20
endgame	14	12
foul	0	15
total	76	65

Result

Final score

76 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 60.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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