FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

3.89 – 151.88

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.9 ±13.3

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 34.89Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -8.06Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -22.94Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.6 ±9.8

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 42.67Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 22.69Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 86.52Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10421, 5560, 11440

/ 100 compat

Projected

3.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10421, 5560, 11440

Auto

15.9 100%

Teleop

1.1 100%

Endgame

-16.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 226, 4956, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 226, 4956, 2054

Auto

45.8 31%

Teleop

71.0 48%

Endgame

30.9 21%

Strengths

· 2054 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score3.9pts

Blue projected score151.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148
Score range: -13–169
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 94.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.9Season APEX500.6

15.9Auto45.8

1.1Teleop71

-16Endgame30.9

116Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	52
teleop	17	181
endgame	22	56
foul	0	0
total	51	289

Result

Final score

51 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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