FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.26 – 133.44

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.9 ±12.4

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 25.81Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 21.99Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 16.46Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±11.1

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 43.92Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 32.17Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 57.35Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 5547, 3537

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 5547, 3537

Auto

11.2 17%

Teleop

43.4 64%

Endgame

12.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9650, 7790, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9650, 7790, 3536

Auto

20.9 16%

Teleop

86.3 65%

Endgame

24.9 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.2
Score range: 47–150
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 93.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.9Season APEX342.2

11.2Auto20.9

43.4Teleop86.3

12.9Endgame24.9

94Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	95	79
endgame	52	10
foul	15	0
total	171	102

Result

Final score

171 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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