FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

44.09 – 29.8

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.9 ±12.7

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 11.49Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 15.07Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 17.53Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.5 ±11.1

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX -1.87Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 14.22Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 17.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7855, 6114, 9568

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7855, 6114, 9568

Auto

10.5 23%

Teleop

29.9 66%

Endgame

5.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4776, 7250, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 7250, 9541

Auto

9.5 59%

Teleop

-1.5 0%

Endgame

8.1 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.1pts

Blue projected score29.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 13–61
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 94.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.9Season APEX311.5

10.5Auto9.5

29.9Teleop-1.5

5.2Endgame8.1

88Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	32
teleop	28	31
endgame	38	1
foul	0	0
total	89	64

Result

Final score

89 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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