FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.8 – 101.43

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±11.7

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 32.78Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 4.69Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 41.33Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±11.7

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 25.88Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 49.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 25.69Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6121, 6087, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6121, 6087, 9541

Auto

15.4 19%

Teleop

43.8 55%

Endgame

21.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3537, 5534, 7790

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3537, 5534, 7790

Auto

12.8 13%

Teleop

57.4 57%

Endgame

30.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score101.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.6
Score range: 59–121
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 112.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.8Season APEX318.2

15.4Auto12.8

43.8Teleop57.4

21.1Endgame30.5

54Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	20
teleop	18	68
endgame	17	16
foul	0	0
total	45	104

Result

Final score

45 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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