FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.06 – 123.38

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.8 ±13.3

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 34.82Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 11.28Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 2.96Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.3 ±9.8

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 64.35Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 46Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 13.03Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11437, 9106, 7794

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11437, 9106, 7794

Auto

5.8 11%

Teleop

27.3 51%

Endgame

20.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5534, 226, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 226, 7768

Auto

12.0 10%

Teleop

57.5 50%

Endgame

45.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.1pts

Blue projected score123.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.3
Score range: 32–140
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 92.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.8Season APEX409.3

5.8Auto12

27.3Teleop57.5

20.2Endgame45.1

28Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	26	62
endgame	20	37
foul	0	0
total	63	126

Result

Final score

63 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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