FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.44 – 25.55

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.6 ±12.7

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -4.75Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 10.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 6.42Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.7 ±11.7

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 10.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -25.25Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 40.02Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11435, 9541, 7155

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11435, 9541, 7155

Auto

10.5 100%

Teleop

-14.4 0%

Endgame

10.0 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7250, 11440, 9650

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7250, 11440, 9650

Auto

22.8 100%

Teleop

1.3 7%

Endgame

-4.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score12.4pts

Blue projected score25.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.1
Score range: -5–43
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 93.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.6Season APEX266.7

10.5Auto22.8

-14.4Teleop1.3

10Endgame-4.3

80Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	14	41
endgame	26	0
foul	0	0
total	55	56

Result

Final score

55 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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