FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.08 – 33.42

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±11.7

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 18.18Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 20.82Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 11.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.2 ±13.9

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 16.41Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 19.87Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -2.86Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4983, 8041, 6121

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4983, 8041, 6121

Auto

4.7 11%

Teleop

21.3 51%

Endgame

15.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9568, 5547, 5560

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9568, 5547, 5560

Auto

0.4 1%

Teleop

23.1 71%

Endgame

9.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score33.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 16–67
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 94.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.5Season APEX140.2

4.7Auto0.4

21.3Teleop23.1

15.8Endgame9.2

134Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	7
teleop	64	24
endgame	24	11
foul	0	0
total	115	42

Result

Final score

115 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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