FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122 – 47.52

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.9 ±11.7

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 80.15Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 30.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 11.5Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±11.6

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 15.16Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 13.73Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 18.63Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2054, 7202, 3537

/ 100 compat

Projected

122 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2054, 7202, 3537

Auto

36.9 30%

Teleop

73.3 59%

Endgame

13.3 11%

Strengths

· 2054 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4956, 4776, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4956, 4776, 7855

Auto

16.6 41%

Teleop

4.8 12%

Endgame

19.2 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122pts

Blue projected score47.5pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.5
Score range: 32–138
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 87.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.9Season APEX181.8

36.9Auto16.6

73.3Teleop4.8

13.3Endgame19.2

109Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	7
teleop	106	41
endgame	35	20
foul	0	10
total	187	78

Result

Final score

187 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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