FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

45.52 – 16.27

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.8 ±13.3

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -6.1Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 12.47Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 39.15Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.6 ±12.4

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -4.9Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX -1.71Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 22.88Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11440, 4983, 6087

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11440, 4983, 6087

Auto

9.6 27%

Teleop

12.7 36%

Endgame

13.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7794, 9568, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7794, 9568, 1684

Auto

17.0 65%

Teleop

5.4 21%

Endgame

3.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.5pts

Blue projected score16.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 0–62
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 88.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.8Season APEX350.6

9.6Auto17

12.7Teleop5.4

13.1Endgame3.8

34Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	8
teleop	12	73
endgame	0	28
foul	0	0
total	28	109

Result

Final score

28 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 55.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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