FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.06 – 85.45

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.9 ±13.3

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 22.66Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 36.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -9Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.4 ±9.9

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 23.39Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -2.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 64.7Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7155, 11437, 5560

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7155, 11437, 5560

Auto

8.3 19%

Teleop

15.9 36%

Endgame

19.8 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3536, 9541, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 9541, 5534

Auto

12.4 15%

Teleop

49.2 61%

Endgame

18.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score85.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.4
Score range: 34–101
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 87.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.9Season APEX450.4

8.3Auto12.4

15.9Teleop49.2

19.8Endgame18.9

112Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	25	92
endgame	14	46
foul	0	0
total	62	150

Result

Final score

62 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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