FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.82 – 96.57

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202 ±12.7

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 26.36Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 2.16Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 64.3Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.5 ±12.2

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX -2.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 89.54Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 9.32Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11437, 4776, 141

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11437, 4776, 141

Auto

16.2 18%

Teleop

49.4 54%

Endgame

26.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11435, 226, 9650

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11435, 226, 9650

Auto

24.4 26%

Teleop

46.4 49%

Endgame

24.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.8pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.7
Score range: 73–117
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 112.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202Season APEX208.5

16.2Auto24.4

49.4Teleop46.4

26.4Endgame24.1

47Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	12
teleop	26	64
endgame	13	30
foul	0	0
total	42	106

Result

Final score

42 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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