FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.38 – 54.65

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 85.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.4 ±12.7

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 27.56Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 22.6Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 17.22Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±11.1

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 53.68Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 6.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX -5.73Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7790, 7855, 5547

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7790, 7855, 5547

Auto

14.7 23%

Teleop

40.3 62%

Endgame

10.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2054, 6963, 141

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2054, 6963, 141

Auto

34.4 60%

Teleop

31.2 54%

Endgame

-8.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.4pts

Blue projected score54.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.7
Score range: 41–81
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 80.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.4Season APEX390.6

14.7Auto34.4

40.3Teleop31.2

10.2Endgame-8

158Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	37
teleop	60	110
endgame	35	43
foul	0	0
total	103	190

Result

Final score

103 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 85.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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