FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.07 – 51.95

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.4 ±10.5

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 66.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 21.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 14.74Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.2 ±12.7

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 1.62Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 4.23Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 46.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9650, 1684, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9650, 1684, 7768

Auto

12.3 12%

Teleop

78.1 77%

Endgame

11.0 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10421, 9568, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

52 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10421, 9568, 7202

Auto

9.0 17%

Teleop

38.3 71%

Endgame

6.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.1pts

Blue projected score52pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.1
Score range: 38–117
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 80.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.4Season APEX237.2

12.3Auto9

78.1Teleop38.3

11Endgame6.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	35	47
endgame	20	8
foul	0	0
total	91	73

Result

Final score

91 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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