FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.4 – 6.27

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.2 ±12.2

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 43.49Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 24.29Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 17.62Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.5 ±13.3

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 10.25Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -5.8Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 1.82Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11437, 226, 6114

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11437, 226, 6114

Auto

-1.1 0%

Teleop

55.1 62%

Endgame

34.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5547, 9541, 11440

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5547, 9541, 11440

Auto

2.1 27%

Teleop

-6.6 0%

Endgame

12.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.4pts

Blue projected score6.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.1
Score range: -9–100
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 82.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.2Season APEX132.5

-1.1Auto2.1

55.1Teleop-6.6

34.4Endgame12.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	17
teleop	54	18
endgame	28	2
foul	0	0
total	105	37

Result

Final score

105 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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