FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.48 – 58.5

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.5 ±10.7

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 65.02Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX -6.21Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 17.67Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±10.5

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 26.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 1.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 30.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 2586, 6087

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 2586, 6087

Auto

2.0 2%

Teleop

56.4 66%

Endgame

27.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4956, 6963, 6121

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4956, 6963, 6121

Auto

11.1 19%

Teleop

32.4 56%

Endgame

14.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.5pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18
Score range: 45–90
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 79.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.5Season APEX374.7

2Auto11.1

56.4Teleop32.4

27.4Endgame14.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	23
teleop	86	51
endgame	45	17
foul	15	0
total	153	91

Result

Final score

153 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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