FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

30.16 – 14.01

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.4 ±12.7

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 28.77Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 10.07Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -8.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164 ±12.7

141WOBOT

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX -8.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 14.66Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 7.97Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7790, 5560, 9106

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7790, 5560, 9106

Auto

18.1 60%

Teleop

9.7 32%

Endgame

2.3 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 141, 7855, 11435

/ 100 compat

Projected

14 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 141, 7855, 11435

Auto

1.8 6%

Teleop

27.3 93%

Endgame

0.4 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.2pts

Blue projected score14pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.2
Score range: -1–45
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.4Season APEX164

18.1Auto1.8

9.7Teleop27.3

2.3Endgame0.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	17	22
endgame	3	14
foul	0	0
total	33	48

Result

Final score

33 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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