FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.41 – 146.79

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 96.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.2 ±11.1

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 2.83Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 16.01Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 7.57Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.1 ±9.9

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 90.81Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 27.66Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 28.32Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7250, 7155, 4983

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7250, 7155, 4983

Auto

6.0 25%

Teleop

12.8 53%

Endgame

5.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 2054, 9650

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 2054, 9650

Auto

20.2 14%

Teleop

87.2 59%

Endgame

40.7 27%

Strengths

· 3603 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.4pts

Blue projected score146.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.4
Score range: 13–160
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 73.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.2Season APEX449.1

6Auto20.2

12.8Teleop87.2

5.3Endgame40.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	51
teleop	11	157
endgame	30	38
foul	45	15
total	106	261

Result

Final score

106 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 96.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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