FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.92 – 59.59

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.1 ±11.6

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 32.87Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 8.31Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX -12.26Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 657.6 ±8.7

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 21.19Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 3.06Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 35.34Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 10421, 4776

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 226, 10421, 4776

Auto

8.5 29%

Teleop

17.1 58%

Endgame

3.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 6121, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 6121, 3536

Auto

12.3 21%

Teleop

34.4 59%

Endgame

11.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.9pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.7
Score range: 16–73
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 72.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.1Season APEX657.6

8.5Auto12.3

17.1Teleop34.4

3.8Endgame11.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	5	85
endgame	15	9
foul	20	0
total	55	113

Result

Final score

55 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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