FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.9 – 70.1

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

42 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.5 ±12.7

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 5.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 14.57Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 9.62Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.3 ±11.2

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 14.57Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 30.53Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 25Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9541, 7855, 8041

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9541, 7855, 8041

Auto

8.2 26%

Teleop

17.3 56%

Endgame

5.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2586, 11440, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2586, 11440, 7768

Auto

10.8 16%

Teleop

44.0 65%

Endgame

13.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.9pts

Blue projected score70.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.2
Score range: 16–84
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 73 vs event baseline 76.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.5Season APEX322.3

8.2Auto10.8

17.3Teleop44

5.5Endgame13.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	4
teleop	25	20
endgame	5	7
foul	0	0
total	42	31

Result

Final score

42 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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