FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.35 – 98.79

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±12.4

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 98.46Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 12.46Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -6.57Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.2 ±12.7

6114Hamilton CyberHawks

Season APEX 112.8Event APEX 51.98Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 25.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 21Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2054, 5560, 7794

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2054, 5560, 7794

Auto

31.4 30%

Teleop

53.4 51%

Endgame

19.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6114, 8041, 10421

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6114, 8041, 10421

Auto

29.3 32%

Teleop

40.8 44%

Endgame

22.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.4pts

Blue projected score98.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: 79–124
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 112.3.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX229.2

31.4Auto29.3

53.4Teleop40.8

19.3Endgame22.6

64Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	15
teleop	13	29
endgame	1	3
foul	0	0
total	55	47

Result

Final score

55 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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