FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.45 – 183.05

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.1 ±9.9

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 112.43Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 7.45Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 96.57Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.9 ±10.5

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 62.69Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 30.95Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 89.41Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3603, 9650, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 9650, 2054

Auto

42.9 20%

Teleop

134.3 63%

Endgame

35.5 17%

Strengths

· 3603 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3536, 4983, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 4983, 226

Auto

40.3 23%

Teleop

98.3 57%

Endgame

34.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.5pts

Blue projected score183.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.4
Score range: 163–236
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.1Season APEX425.9

42.9Auto40.3

134.3Teleop98.3

35.5Endgame34.7

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	57
teleop	139	93
endgame	83	38
foul	0	0
total	275	188

Result

Final score

275 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Match videos

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