FIM District Lake City Event presented by AT&T

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.33 – 172.25

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.1 ±9.9

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 114.19Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 9.65Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 98.49Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.9 ±10.5

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 59.65Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 26.66Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 85.94Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3603, 9650, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 9650, 2054

Auto

44.6 20%

Teleop

137.0 62%

Endgame

38.2 17%

Strengths

· 3603 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3536, 4983, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 4983, 226

Auto

37.7 23%

Teleop

95.8 57%

Endgame

33.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.3pts

Blue projected score172.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.1
Score range: 152–242
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.1Season APEX425.9

44.6Auto37.7

137Teleop95.8

38.2Endgame33.5

3Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	60
teleop	112	117
endgame	13	43
foul	15	45
total	170	265

Result

Final score

170 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 pts

Match videos

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