Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

722.22 – 621.39

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

844 – 595

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1049.9 ±9.3

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 169.12Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 280.56Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 272.54Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 807.3 ±9.3

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 241.19Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 218.37Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 161.83Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 2481, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

722.2 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4915, 2481, 1678

Auto

137.9 20%

Teleop

393.7 56%

Endgame

175.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4089, 2200, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

621.4 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4089, 2200, 2905

Auto

139.4 23%

Teleop

347.9 57%

Endgame

119.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score722.2pts

Blue projected score621.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.8
Score range: 549–794
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1439 vs event baseline 399.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1049.9Season APEX807.3

137.9Auto139.4

393.7Teleop347.9

175.2Endgame119.7

110Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	180	140
teleop	482	274
endgame	182	181
foul	0	0
total	844	595

Result

Final score

844 – 595

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Match videos

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