Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

590.16 – 583.46

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

394 – 432

Prediction missed · off by 173.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 774.4 ±8.1

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 130.47Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 226.83Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 232.86Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.8 ±8.7

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 195.57Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 221.79Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 166.1Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 7457, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

590.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4907, 7457, 2122

Auto

148.4 26%

Teleop

288.5 50%

Endgame

139.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3707, 4481, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

583.5 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3707, 4481, 686

Auto

96.0 17%

Teleop

337.6 58%

Endgame

143.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score590.2pts

Blue projected score583.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 511–662
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 826 vs event baseline 399.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

774.4Season APEX794.8

148.4Auto96

288.5Teleop337.6

139.8Endgame143.6

132Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	110
teleop	161	277
endgame	117	45
foul	5	0
total	394	432

Result

Final score

394 – 432

Prediction missed · off by 173.8 pts

Match videos

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