Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
554.01 – 423.06
84%16%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
582 – 627
Prediction missed · off by 116 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 832.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 285Event APEX 187.56Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 170.82Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 195.63Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.8 ±7.5
Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 34.62Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 209.9Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 178.54Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7426, 201, 6090
84
/ 100 compatProjected
554 pts
~2.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 7426, 201, 6090
Auto
101.7 18%
Teleop
272.1 49%
Endgame
179.5 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2811, 359, 1771
71
/ 100 compatProjected
423.1 pts
~0.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 2811, 359, 1771
Auto
104.3 26%
Teleop
229.6 56%
Endgame
74.0 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score554pts
Blue projected score423.1pts
Red win probability84%
Event bonus sample278alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 131
- Score range
- 352–625
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
832.2Season APEX695.8
101.7Auto104.3
272.1Teleop229.6
179.5Endgame74
138Consistency123
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 118 | 130 |
| teleop | 286 | 316 |
| endgame | 173 | 151 |
| foul | 5 | 30 |
| total | 582 | 627 |
Result
Final score
582 – 627
Prediction missed · off by 116 pts
Match videos
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