Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
635.85 – 602.86
60%40%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
572 – 656
Prediction missed · off by 58.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 891.7 ±8.1
Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 197.81Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 227.01Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 211.03Rank 4Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 807.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 233.37Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262Event APEX 214.65Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 154.84Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6002, 4499, 694
91
/ 100 compatProjected
635.9 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 6002, 4499, 694
Auto
150.7 24%
Teleop
335.7 54%
Endgame
136.1 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4089, 2200, 2905
89
/ 100 compatProjected
602.9 pts
~1.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 4089, 2200, 2905
Auto
144.2 24%
Teleop
324.3 55%
Endgame
121.7 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.61
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score635.9pts
Blue projected score602.9pts
Red win probability60%
Event bonus sample278alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 33
- Score range
- 532–707
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
891.7Season APEX807.3
150.7Auto144.2
335.7Teleop324.3
136.1Endgame121.7
151Consistency128
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 115 | 122 |
| teleop | 273 | 398 |
| endgame | 164 | 121 |
| foul | 20 | 15 |
| total | 572 | 656 |
Result
Final score
572 – 656
Prediction missed · off by 58.5 pts
Match videos
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