Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

744.08 – 568.63

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

661 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 74.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1049.9 ±9.3

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 176.95Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 286.07Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 281.06Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 876.2 ±13.1

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 189.28Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 198.12Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 181.23Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 2481, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

744.1 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4915, 2481, 1678

Auto

140.7 19%

Teleop

413.9 57%

Endgame

168.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1640, 4476, 2630

/ 100 compat

Projected

568.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1640, 4476, 2630

Auto

95.6 17%

Teleop

334.3 60%

Endgame

127.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score744.1pts

Blue projected score568.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.5
Score range: 498–815
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1164 vs event baseline 394.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1049.9Season APEX876.2

140.7Auto95.6

413.9Teleop334.3

168.9Endgame127.9

108Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	134
teleop	324	234
endgame	207	135
foul	0	0
total	661	503

Result

Final score

661 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 74.4 pts

Match videos

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