Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
601.63 – 410.68
92%8%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
531 – 445
Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 794.8 ±8.7
Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 199.87Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 228.1Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 173.66Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.8 ±7.5
Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 31.43Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 206.16Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 173.09Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3707, 4481, 686
88
/ 100 compatProjected
601.6 pts
~2.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 3707, 4481, 686
Auto
88.4 15%
Teleop
345.9 58%
Endgame
163.7 27%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2811, 359, 1771
71
/ 100 compatProjected
410.7 pts
~0.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 2811, 359, 1771
Auto
103.9 26%
Teleop
209.1 53%
Endgame
81.4 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.76
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score601.6pts
Blue projected score410.7pts
Red win probability92%
Event bonus sample278alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 191
- Score range
- 340–673
- Upset likelihood
- 8%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
794.8Season APEX695.8
88.4Auto103.9
345.9Teleop209.1
163.7Endgame81.4
159Consistency119
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 123 | 109 |
| teleop | 315 | 272 |
| endgame | 78 | 54 |
| foul | 15 | 10 |
| total | 531 | 445 |
Result
Final score
531 – 445
Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts
Match videos
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