Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

609.22 – 587.83

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

555 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 774.4 ±8.1

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 136.38Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 235.1Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 237.74Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 832.2 ±8.7

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 205.75Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 181.64Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 200.44Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 7457, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

609.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4907, 7457, 2122

Auto

141.1 24%

Teleop

309.0 52%

Endgame

141.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6090, 201, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

587.8 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6090, 201, 7426

Auto

110.7 19%

Teleop

301.6 51%

Endgame

174.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score609.2pts

Blue projected score587.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.4
Score range: 518–679
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 390.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

774.4Season APEX832.2

141.1Auto110.7

309Teleop301.6

141.4Endgame174.7

127Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	170	75
teleop	242	178
endgame	143	198
foul	0	0
total	555	451

Result

Final score

555 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 pts

Match videos

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