Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

531.3 – 747.53

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

433 – 806

Prediction correct · off by 78.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 764.4 ±8.7

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 185.14Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 215.32Rank 21Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 130.84Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1049.9 ±9.3

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 177.43Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 289.31Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 280.79Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3707, 4481, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

531.3 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3707, 4481, 4270

Auto

76.6 15%

Teleop

333.3 63%

Endgame

118.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4915, 2481, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

747.5 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4915, 2481, 1678

Auto

146.3 20%

Teleop

414.1 56%

Endgame

174.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score531.3pts

Blue projected score747.5pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -216.2
Score range: 458–821
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1239 vs event baseline 405.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

764.4Season APEX1049.9

76.6Auto146.3

333.3Teleop414.1

118.3Endgame174.9

148Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	181
teleop	198	399
endgame	149	226
foul	5	0
total	433	806

Result

Final score

433 – 806

Prediction correct · off by 78.4 pts

Match videos

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