Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

611.23 – 465.6

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

578 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.3 ±9.3

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 237.42Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 215.38Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 158.43Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.8 ±7.5

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 48.84Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 224.39Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 192.37Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4089, 2200, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

611.2 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4089, 2200, 2905

Auto

138.3 23%

Teleop

330.9 55%

Endgame

130.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 359, 1771

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.6 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2811, 359, 1771

Auto

109.5 25%

Teleop

249.7 56%

Endgame

87.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score611.2pts

Blue projected score465.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.6
Score range: 393–684
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 404.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.3Season APEX695.8

138.3Auto109.5

330.9Teleop249.7

130Endgame87.7

126Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	138
teleop	277	266
endgame	143	40
foul	45	5
total	578	449

Result

Final score

578 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Match videos

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