Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.85 – 255.16

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

399 – 512

Prediction missed · off by 200 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.2 ±9.3

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 65.56Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 72.15Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 118.14Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680.7 ±14.7

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 123.32Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 41.69Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 90.15Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8429, 6989, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8429, 6989, 5462

Auto

71.0 27%

Teleop

95.8 36%

Endgame

99.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4421, 3277, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4421, 3277, 3075

Auto

68.0 28%

Teleop

120.0 49%

Endgame

56.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score255.9pts

Blue projected score255.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.7
Score range: 185–326
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 911 vs event baseline 386.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.2Season APEX680.7

71Auto68

95.8Teleop120

99.3Endgame56.5

131Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	104
teleop	231	307
endgame	93	101
foul	15	0
total	399	512

Result

Final score

399 – 512

Prediction missed · off by 200 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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