Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

328.99 – 438.17

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

397 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.7 ±9.5

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 191.75Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10604Demirören Robotics

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 21.79Rank 74Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 115.45Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.3 ±9.3

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 192.52Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 163.43Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 82.22Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 10604, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

329 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 359, 10604, 9140

Auto

44.1 14%

Teleop

182.9 58%

Endgame

90.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1771, 4907, 6925

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.2 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1771, 4907, 6925

Auto

91.8 22%

Teleop

234.8 56%

Endgame

89.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score329pts

Blue projected score438.2pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.2
Score range: 259–508
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 837 vs event baseline 386.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.7Season APEX658.3

44.1Auto91.8

182.9Teleop234.8

90.4Endgame89.9

114Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	83
teleop	201	269
endgame	119	88
foul	0	0
total	397	440

Result

Final score

397 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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