Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

511.4 – 446.02

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

509 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 85.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 738.7 ±9.3

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 216.56Rank 4Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 217.1Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 77.74Rank 67Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 701.6 ±9.3

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 207.95Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 126.72Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 111.35Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 694, 2200, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

511.4 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 694, 2200, 3419

Auto

92.0 18%

Teleop

310.8 62%

Endgame

95.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 686, 4270, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

446 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 686, 4270, 8808

Auto

58.3 13%

Teleop

293.2 67%

Endgame

87.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score511.4pts

Blue projected score446pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.4
Score range: 376–581
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 386.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

738.7Season APEX701.6

92Auto58.3

310.8Teleop293.2

95.6Endgame87.1

138Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	78
teleop	266	115
endgame	68	85
foul	45	0
total	509	278

Result

Final score

509 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 85.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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