Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

430.93 – 434.85

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

622 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 201 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 837.1 ±9.3

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 135.09Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 265.2Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 30.64Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.5 ±9.8

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 201.94Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 59.52Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 173.39Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 2481, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.9 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6238, 2481, 9644

Auto

135.5 33%

Teleop

229.5 56%

Endgame

47.2 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2905, 3492, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.9 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2905, 3492, 4362

Auto

71.2 17%

Teleop

256.6 60%

Endgame

99.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score430.9pts

Blue projected score434.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.9
Score range: 362–504
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 846 vs event baseline 385.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

837.1Season APEX700.5

135.5Auto71.2

229.5Teleop256.6

47.2Endgame99.7

127Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	124
teleop	305	60
endgame	142	40
foul	45	0
total	622	224

Result

Final score

622 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 201 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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