Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.23 – 303.24

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.6 ±15.3

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 177.37Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 3.57Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 19.29Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±11

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 46.14Rank 66Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 129.46Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 127.64Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 10950, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 7039, 10950, 7763

Auto

53.2 28%

Teleop

105.5 56%

Endgame

31.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7594, 1671, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7594, 1671, 263

Auto

16.6 6%

Teleop

160.5 54%

Endgame

118.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score200.2pts

Blue projected score303.2pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103
Score range: 130–373
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 387.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.6Season APEX586

53.2Auto16.6

105.5Teleop160.5

31.1Endgame118.2

154Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	29
teleop	96	141
endgame	41	78
foul	75	0
total	246	248

Result

Final score

246 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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