Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.15 – 447.39

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

595 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 126.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 739.2 ±9.9

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 207.11Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 175.74Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 93.3Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.4 ±11.2

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 203.98Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11065STEAMex Overheat

Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 23.62Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 219.79Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 7426, 353

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4476, 7426, 353

Auto

79.9 17%

Teleop

238.7 51%

Endgame

149.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2974, 11065, 287

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2974, 11065, 287

Auto

75.6 17%

Teleop

228.2 52%

Endgame

137.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score476.2pts

Blue projected score447.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.8
Score range: 377–546
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 908 vs event baseline 386.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

739.2Season APEX633.4

79.9Auto75.6

238.7Teleop228.2

149.3Endgame137.7

149Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	62
teleop	313	110
endgame	169	136
foul	0	5
total	595	313

Result

Final score

595 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 126.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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