Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.17 – 434.38

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

472 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 134.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.3 ±11.5

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 3.88Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 96.88Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 190.41Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.5 ±12.7

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 156.57Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 95.99Rank 52Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 181.82Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7717, 4421, 6002

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.2 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 7717, 4421, 6002

Auto

79.4 28%

Teleop

152.3 53%

Endgame

54.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2630, 7890, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.4 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2630, 7890, 359

Auto

105.4 25%

Teleop

217.6 52%

Endgame

96.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score291.2pts

Blue projected score434.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.2
Score range: 222–503
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 994 vs event baseline 385.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.3Season APEX759.5

79.4Auto105.4

152.3Teleop217.6

54.5Endgame96.5

132Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	80
teleop	262	306
endgame	94	126
foul	15	10
total	472	522

Result

Final score

472 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 134.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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