Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

435.6 – 445.75

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

447 – 502

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 712.9 ±9.3

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 249.07Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 62.2Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 124.33Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.3 ±9.3

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 148.85Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 99.22Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 197.68Rank 4Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6090, 8429, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6090, 8429, 3928

Auto

84.4 19%

Teleop

208.3 48%

Endgame

142.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4907, 8020, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4907, 8020, 694

Auto

74.3 18%

Teleop

256.8 61%

Endgame

87.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score435.6pts

Blue projected score445.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.1
Score range: 367–515
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 949 vs event baseline 382.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

712.9Season APEX691.3

84.4Auto74.3

208.3Teleop256.8

142.9Endgame87.6

139Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	117
teleop	199	233
endgame	157	137
foul	0	15
total	447	502

Result

Final score

447 – 502

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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