Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.06 – 163.49

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

415 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 723.4 ±11.2

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 114.58Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 32.44Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 210.04Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.7 ±11

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 72.85Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 82.47Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 8.17Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4122, 5985, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4122, 5985, 2200

Auto

56.8 17%

Teleop

201.0 60%

Endgame

78.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2333, 6989, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2333, 6989, 10101

Auto

31.1 18%

Teleop

122.2 69%

Endgame

24.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score357.1pts

Blue projected score163.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample278alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.6
Score range: 94–426
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 383.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

723.4Season APEX516.7

56.8Auto31.1

201Teleop122.2

78Endgame24.2

122Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	71
teleop	194	77
endgame	109	35
foul	5	0
total	415	183

Result

Final score

415 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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